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• 18:04, 3 November 2026 3316950 talk contribs created page Prediction Markets (Created page with "Contribution of Szofi Varga = Introduction = In 2008 twenty-two scholars, most of them economists and among them Kenneth Arrow, Thomas Schelling, Vernon Smith and Robert Shiller, published a short policy statement in ''Science'' arguing that US regulators should remove the legal barriers to prediction markets (Arrow et al. 2008). Prediction markets, in their definition, are venues for trading contracts whose payoffs depend on the outcome of uncertain events. A contract...")